Russia, the world's largest coal-producing country, plans to increase its output and exports over the next 15 years. Russia's share of the global coal export market is projected to increase from the current 11 per cent to 25 per cent.
According to a draft State Strategy Paper released by the Russian Ministry of Energy, production will increase to 448-530 million tons per year by 2024 and to 485-668 million tons per year by 2035.
Domestic coal consumption is expected to increase by more than 12 per cent; it currently stands at around 196 million tons per year. Asia-Pacific, South-East Asia, the Middle East and Africa will continue to be the major markets for Russian gas.
Russia is already exporting substantial amounts of coal to China (about 30 million tons per year) but there is still a great potential to boost exports in the coming years. The Ministry of Energy expects that exports to China will almost double to 55 million tons from their current level in the next 10 years.
Another Asian country, India, is also expected to "significantly increase" coking coal imports from Russia's Far Eastern ports. Vietnam has now tripled its procurement of Russian coal on the basis of the commissioning of several new coal-fired power plants.Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration ( EIA) expects Russia to surpass Indonesia as the leading exporter of thermal coal over the next decade.
Coal mining has been a key industry in Russia for a long time, with production costs among the lowest in the world.
Combined with high transport costs , particularly for rail transport, these factors make the final price of Russian coal almost comparable to the prices offered by some of Russia's major global competitors, such as Australia and South Africa.
Russia's transport authorities are currently investigating the possibility of expanding the export potential of coal, which has become the most important export product in terms of rail throughput. They are planning to start more active development of rail and port infrastructure, including the expansion of the Trans-Siberian Railway and Baikal-Amur Railway.
