Power demand declined across the country in March and April, despite signs of progress between November 2019 and February 2020, according to India Ratings (Ind-Ra).
The recovery remains unclear due to the confusion surrounding the timetable for the lockout, the rating agency said in a report.
In March, all-India energy demand decreased by 8.9 percent year-on-year (YoY) to 98.8 billion units (BU) while energy supply decreased by 9.2 percent (YoY) and the energy deficit stayed at 0.4 percent (March 2019: 0.4 percent).
Despite a decrease in demand for energy in March, the energy demand for the FY20 increased by 1.2 percent.
As demand decreases, electricity generation (excluding renewables) decreased by 8.8% to 97.7 BU in March, while thermal generation decreased by 11.1%. The thermal load factor (PLF) decreased to 52.6 percent in March (February 2020: 60.4 percent; March 2019: 62.9 percent) due to lower demand. Local, state and private sector PLFs decreased to 65.2 percent in March 2020 (March 2019: 77.3 percent), 46.1 percent (58.8 percent) and 47.5 percent (55.6 percent) respectively, according to the Ind-Ra survey.
Thermal PLFs were most affected by the decline in power demand in March and April, despite the requisite status of nuclear, hydro and renewable energy. Thermal PLFs are expected to stay small due to the extension of the lockdown.
Power price
The short-term price of electricity on the Indian Energy Exchange was lower at 2.46 / kWh in March 2020 (March 2019: 3.12 / kWh) as the difference in purchase and sale volumes of bids increased to a negative 7.662 million units (MU; March 2019: 3.321MU negative). The volume traded on the short-term market increased from 18,3 percent of YoY to 3,971 MU due to favorable exchange prices for both distribution companies and open-access buyers, according to the report.
Coal production by Coal India Ltd increased by 6.5 percent YoY to 84.4 mt in March 2020 due to higher production at its key subsidiaries, Mahanadi Coalfields Ltd (up 6.6 percent YoY), South Eastern Coalfields Ltd (up 21.8 percent YoY) and Western Coalfields (up 16.8 percent YoY). However, coal production over the FY20 was still marginally down 0.8% to 602.1 mt due to an extended monsoon and protests by employees in some of the mines.
The coal inventory at thermal power stations increased by 45.4 percent to 45.0 mtpa due to continued coal production, as coal is an essential service despite lower demand. Coal availability at pithead and non-pithead plants remained at 19 days and 32 days on 31 March 2020.
The additional transmission line was lower in FY20, with an additional 11,664 km of track (FY19: 22,437 km of track) included. The length of the transmission lines added in March 2020 was also lower at 1,438 km (March 2019: 2,868 km), with an additional 65 percent coming from the central sector, according to the report.
