The global coal industry will never recover from the Covid-19 pandemic, industry analysts expect, because the crisis has shown that renewable energy is cheaper for customers and a better option for investors.
A long-term change away from dirty fossil fuels intensified during the lockout, leading to power plant closures in many countries, and providing new evidence that human coal consumption could have finally peaked after more than 200 years.
This makes the worst-case climate predictions less plausible, as they are focused on the continued growth of coal for the rest of the century.
Even before the pandemic, the industry was under pressure due to increased climate activism, divestment campaigns and cheap alternatives. The lockdown further exposed its fragility, wiping billions from the market valuations of the world's largest coal miners.
When demand for electricity fell, several utilities first cut coal, as it is more costly than gas, wind and solar. In the EU, imports of coal for thermal power plants have plunged almost two-thirds in recent months to the lowest levels not seen in 30 years. The effects have also been felt around the world.
This week, the US Energy Information Administration's new report projected that the US would produce more electricity from renewables this year than from coal for the first time. Industry analysts predict that coal's share of US electricity generation could fall to just 10 per cent in five years, down from 50 per cent a decade ago. Despite Donald Trump 's pledge to dig coal, there are now more job losses and closures in the industry than at any time since Eisenhower 's presidency 60 years ago. The proposal of Great River Energy to shut down a 1.1-gigawatt thermal plant in North Dakota and replace it with wind and gas was among the most recent.
Rob Jackson, the chair of Global Carbon Project, said the pandemic was likely to confirm that coal will never again reach the global peak seen in 2013: “Covid-19 will slash coal emissions so much this year that the industry will never recover, even with a continued build-out in India and elsewhere. The crash in natural gas prices, record-cheap solar and wind power, and climate and health concerns have undercut the industry permanently.”
Records are going to fall thick and heavy. By Friday, the United Kingdom's national grid had not burned a single lump of coal for 35 days, the longest continuous period since the beginning of the industrial revolution more than 230 years ago. In Portugal, the longest carbon-free period has been extended for almost two months, according to the campaign group Europe Beyond Coal recently.
